Sitting at the word processor, a snifter of Remy-Martin cognac swirling in the dim half-light of the darkening room. I am looking ahead into the millennium; I have some scenarios playing in my head that I believe you will see come to pass in the very near future.

The unfathomable heights of stupidity and miscalculation that we are witnessing here today are about to shake up the industry and, in the near future, you are going to see the players realign and you will see their positions change in the retail marketplace. Watch for Toyota and Daimler-Chrysler to gain market share and Ford, General Motors, and Honda to continue to decline over the next few years.

The reasoning is simple...Daimler-Chrysler and Toyota are supporting their dealers and they are not interfering in the retail process. They are allowing their dealers to hold reasonable margins and they are not overtly trying to out-maneuver and double-cross their loyal dealers on almost a daily basis.

Ford and General Motors are banking on the Internet to the point that I am convinced that they are willing to throw away the most successful dealer networks in history. Not only is this a major miscalculation, it is fast reaching the "Point of No Return"...And, frankly; It ain’t gonna turn out the way they think it is.

The General Motors operative name for the project is "DaVinci". I’ll be outlining the whole evil plan in future issues and speeches.

When the dust clears...This is the way that I think it’s gonna shake out...

First of all, you are going to see General Motors and Ford stepping up their assault to defeat and overturn the state franchise laws. There is a very real possibility that, initially, they will be successful.

First of all, look for Ford and General Motors to hire an army of influential lobbyists and attorneys to strong-arm changes in the laws and to discredit any legislators who oppose them. I think you’ll see them take the battle directly to the consumers through media campaigns and press opportunities.

Any legislator who supports strong franchise laws will be portrayed as taking campaign money from the Car Dealers.

Unfortunately, I believe you will see Automobile Dealers characterized in the worst possible light. I am predicting that you are going to see some of your Manufacturer/Partners deliberately assassinating the image of the retail dealer. Don’t be surprised to see smear campaigns similar to the AutoNation "Guys in Plaid" campaign portraying dealers as seedy criminals, bumbling morons who gouge their customers and block Internet commerce.

Sadly enough, there will always be a number of weak dealers who will "suck up" and support the factory initiatives. You can bet they will be making deals and "buying off" certain key players.

They are going to position this as an e-commerce issue. The publicity campaign will paint the manufacturers as "Consumer-Friendly". They just want to help people to get the best deal possible. Consumers should have the right to choose the option to buy direct. It is the dealers who are supporting arcane, outdated franchise laws that restrict free trade, gouge prices, and limit the consumers’ right to choose.

There you have it. I predict you are going to see manufacturers testing the laws over and over again...until something breaks. 

Don’t mess with Texas. Ford is still, doggedly, trying to go in through the back door in Texas in an effort to retail cars directly to the public through their websites. The lawsuit against the state of Texas is a direct effort to bust the toughest state franchise laws in the country. As I write these words (December 15^th) a Federal judge in Austin Texas just ruled against Ford’s efforts to get a restraining order to put their website back online to retail used cars in Houston. Incredibly, some dealers in Houston indicated that they were okay with the Ford initiative.

Last month I wrote that Ford was not out of the game, that they were just taking a breather between rounds. Exit Ross Roberts and enter Brian Kelley.

Just when you would have thought that Ford would be laying low.

Now I know what you were probably thinking...You might have been thinking that, if you were a Ford Executive that you would be totally ashamed and embarrassed about Ford’s public humiliations in Tulsa, Oklahoma City and Salt Lake City. You would probably have too much personal dignity and pride to show your face on this issue right?

Naw! Bob Rewey does an interview in one of the automotive weaklies and announces with smug pride "Ford Auto Collections are profitable and more dealership consolidations are coming." We shoulda known that ole Bob wouldn’t let us down.

Big news! Bob says with pride "The Auto Collections are profitable."

Duh! Is that supposed to be impressive that they were able to barely eek out a profit from dealerships that were great performers before they ineptly put them in the toilet in the first place? Don’t blame ole Bob though ... Somehow; I don’t think Bob even gets it.

Even if I believed that statement (which I don’t) it still doesn’t cover or excuse Ford’s monumental failures in these markets. I have always said the Auto Collections were Rewey’s baby and that he should take full credit for their success or failure, and that yardstick should measure that Bob’s career achievements. In my mind there is no doubt that the performance of the Auto Collections are a direct reflection of Bob’s true talent and ability.

Let me venture a wild-ass guess into the top-secret workings of the inner circle.... Is the next Auto Collection going to be in ah.... say ah...Let me guess...Jackson Mississippi maybe? (Written December 15^th)

Now this guy Brain Kelley on the other hand (Ford whiz kid VP replacing Ross Roberts)...I predict he’s going to be Ford’s version of Ron Zarella. Of course Kelley doesn’t have a guardian Smale watching over him.

Speaking of Zarella, you might want to take a Polaroid of him so a few years down the road you will be able to remember what he looked like. If you’ve followed this column, I have repeatedly questioned his performance as "Marketing Czar". Personally, I would have told him to clean out his desk and pack all his stuff in a Valvoline box and hit the road a few years ago.

Gotta say that I really like everything that I see and hear about this guy, Harry Pearce, vice chairman at General Motors. I have a feeling that before the year is over he’ll replace Jack Smith in the number one position at GM. Pearce is possibly going to be the hope and salvation of General Motors. He’ll need a big broom to sweep out some of the dead weight and dust that been accumulating near the top.

Considering the fact that GM just posted a 27.1% market share in November. I am sure that Zarella’s head is squarely positioned beneath the axe and, in my opinion, should have rolled several years ago. When did you ever think you’d see Rick Wagoner, president of GM hopefully and optimistically predicting that GM had a goal of getting their market share up to a whopping 32%?

General Motors’ market share is a shame and a disgrace; Zarella didn’t even have the opportunity to pick another fight with the union to provoke a strike this time to justify it.

Of course, a large share of the responsibility for this mess has to be aimed directly at Roy Roberts and his brilliant initiatives and execution of the legendary VOMS distribution systems, not to mention his stellar human relations skills with the dealers. I have a suspicion that Roy will be repeatedly demoted downward until they find a job he is good at.

While I am in the process of speculating on possible future events...I am going to say "Stick a Fork in Jac...He’s done."

Look for Nasser to jump ship, defect to another large corporation. Rumors are saying he’s talking to General Electric. Despite the colorful shouting and shoving matches between Nasser and William Clay Ford (the story says it was broken up by security guards) Nasser was not hauled out of the building in handcuffs as some rumormongers have indicated. I can tell you this however; The Ford family wants the company back with a Ford at the Helm. Maybe William Clay, maybe Edsel, but I can tell you without disclaimer that the Ford Family is extremely dealer-friendly and I can guarantee that they are not totally satisfied with the direction the company is taking under Nasser. Personally, I believe that unless the Ford Family does step in and take over, that Nasser’s regime will totally wipe out their family heritage.

Ford Motor Company’s dominant market position was built on two cornerstones...a superior/motivated dealer body and superior, top-quality product. As for a quality product, we are talking about a company who is currently recalling more cars than it is producing and a dealer body that is demoralized and feels betrayed..

Absolutely incredible! Told you so!

December 15^th, 1999...More than 100 letters, faxes and emails from supportive dealers and industry friends in less than two days. When I first wrote that the AutoNation Used Car Superstores were going to crash and burn, more than three years ago, I was called the Voice in the Wilderness...a crackpot. Today I am a respected futurist being interviewed by Bloomberg Financial News, USA Today, The Dow Jones Report, and more than a dozen other newspapers and publications. In November I was interviewed live on CNNfn in New York concerning future trends.

Closing 23 Superstore locations and laying off 1800 additional employees, this was always predictable. Exactly the way that I described it...for exactly the reasons that I said it would happen. The AutoNation model has been flawed from the outset and I believe you will continue to see the corporation crumble and disintegrate over the next few years until it is completely dismantled and their franchised dealerships are sold off...back to the factories, the original dealers and to other corporations and new owners.

Considering the current value of AutoNation stock and the direction I believe it is going to continue to take, I strongly urge John Elway to keep his Coors endorsement contract and, maybe, he might consider investigating whether or not there is a network gig available as a sports commentator.

Of course, as I have said from the beginning the major flaw in the AutoNation business model is the one-price, no-haggle strategy. The consumers have overwhelmingly rejected that approach in virtually every application.

Ford Motor Company, General Motors, and, of course, AutoNation have thrown literally billions of dollars at that goofy no-haggle concept and they can’t force the dealers or the consumers to go along with it.

Speaking of Superstores...Just how long can CarMax hang in there at 2 ½ dollars a share? My kid could buy their stock with his lunch money and still eat. I predict CarMax is next...soon.